crudenow oil Futures home home News EIA Home

The Oil Market


The Historical Handshake

On Jan. 29, 2002 President George W. Bush uttered words that have altered the course of U.S. relations with Iran.

Since 2009, President Obama worked intelligently in stages not only to get Iran out of the grips of the congress and from "The axis of evil" ,and also to give Iran an old important role in the Gulf.

There is a major shift in USA policy. "It is absolutely true that in the 21st century, American isolation is not an option," Obama said. Instead America's strategy should shift to partnering with countries where “terrorist” networks seek a foothold. “Military force should not be the primary way to pursue peace” Obama said. Counterterrorism partnerships will not eliminate the need for drone strikes against terror

USA, had very limited choices.... The plan to isolate Iran had reverse effects, the Iranian began to find new buyers for their gas and oil in the east, like India and Pakistan, while the USA became more isolated through loosing friends like Iran


After lifting of the sanction for a period of six months, which was "limited, targeted and reversible" and now, after the Iranian met their "nuclear obligations”, the negotiation have already entered the “Final-Stage” to halt Iran from “building nuclear weapons”, and bring Iran back to play its positive role in Gulf (satisfying all anti-Iranian nuclear lobbies and yet Iran is now a “new old friend”.

Iranian are reminded of the benefits of cooperation with the Gulf countries notably Qatar and "Bahrain." .The new USA Policy is base on Partnering, and “the USA partners should also be truly partners with each other”. The same cruel message is passed on to the Iraqi politicians who are reminded to fall all in line .

While, this is going on, the media and analysts were busy with the news of few “Unarmed groups in Pajamas “ capturing Iraqi cities and also the news headlines. But few realize that behind the scene a new Oil Map (at least a Federation Map) is shaping up in the Middle East, extending from Egypt to Azerbaijan, down to the gas field in Pars.

The new "Green Map” will soon see several oil and gas pipelines zigzagging all the way to the Mediterranean resulting in more supply flexibility for both oil and gas and almost eradicating the impact of the Choke Points ( Hormuz, Bab al Mandab....)and isolating the Russia and forcing them to be more pragmatic in dealing with the Europeans as competition grows from Qatar and Iran gas

Qatar, home to the world’s largest gas field along with Iran, has proposed a gas pipeline from the Gulf to Europe that would traverse Syria to the Mediterranean. Assad in 2009 refused to go along with the Qatar plan, instead inking deals with Russia.

In fact, Iran, Iraq and Syria signed deals in 2011 to construct a 3,480 mile natural gas pipeline that runs from Iran’s South Pars to Europe. See the map

brentThe Gas Reserve Trillion CM Jabbar al-Jaf former OPEC Econometrician AnalystFeb 2013

Opec Meeting-Ban or not to ban , in the next week