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Potential price collapse Averted by uncelebrated heros

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OPEC member countries came out on Wednesday 30th Nov with the following press release and the Table of how the 1.2 mb/d production cut which was agreed upon in Algeria on Wednesday 28 Sept of this year was shared among the members ……..

Crude oil Crude oil This Meeting coincided with the powerful regular EIA data report on every Wednesday. This is the first time the report was without Our WW(Wednesday Window see graph 2). Also note the Candlestick after Sept 27 Algerian agreement (The long green candle ) going into the whole month of Octobr 2016 , similiarly , the Long Candle after the 30th November meeting which should go through December, other things being equal, until the end of January 2017 when rumours start of breach of the quota...

Basically the agreement is for six months with the starting date chosen wisely as from January 2017 This ensures that the current prices during December should move similar to October ( see graph above) Without any rumors of OPEC failure to stick to the agreement. ).

As for January 2017 when it starts … The market needs a month or two to discover the degree of OPEC members violating the agreement… which will be too late because by March , due to seasonality, the market will usually star to pick up even without OPEC production cut. ("If we can’t come to an agreement, then the other scenario of rolling over and waiting for the market to recover on its own is not a bad outcome." Said Khalid Minister of energy Saudi-Arabia) . However, OPEC has a bad track record when it comes to implementing production Quota , even in the presence of “Monitoring”. ).

"It is difficult to remember the last time OPEC agreed on supply cuts and actually implemented them. We have been expecting some sort of agreement for some time now, but we remain unconvinced about the implementation and exact level of the needed output cut for a more balanced market, and the reaction of key non-OPEC producers," Iran oil minister Zanganah said, ….. It must be emphasized, that OPEC may not implement the cut, but what is important is the frackers. Now they know that any increase in Fracking will not be economical and will be very risky , because the OPEC cut til March goes without exchange of accusations, but when the market finds out the truth per Zanganh Statement it will be too late .Thanks to Iraq , who made this agreement possible ……..).