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Brexist. Let'sStick Together Part2

Crude oil Crude oil On Nymex at 6.pm EDT on Thursday 23 June the market dropped like a stone as soon the official referendum result showed that The UK voted to leave the EU by a four per cent margin. We ask the simple question, why leave when the european did whatever,UK could have asked for?, and Why exit through a referendum when all Party leaders agree that "Referendum is an alien device of dictators and demagogues ?See the graph .lt is quite illustrative

Too Close to Call

Much like 2015 UK general election , most pollsters were predicting the that the result of the 2016 would be "Too Close to Call ".Much like 2015 UK general election, most pollsters were predicting that the result of the 2016 would be “Too Close to Call”. It is a known fact that opinion poll prediction produces “ apathy, and complacency among the camp of the predicted winners” and they may stay in house,while on the other hand the poll prediction produces, enthusiasm and concern among “the predicted losers”, encouraging them to rush out and vote, However, if the polls predicts “ To Close to Call “ this will encourage voters to go out and consequently the voters participation increases,which improves the polls prediction as the error allocated to the “ The undecided falls and follows the sample mean”. (Instead of allocating floating voters three-to-one in favor of Remain).

How did the polls get it so wrong?

The polls did not get it wrong. in fact they got it right to the last decimal !!! but ....

It is true that the use of mobile and online technology needs complicated algorithms to calculate the sample and the sample size and define the targeted population, and it could easily target different demography leading to false results, and biased outcome. However, the large opinion poll companies are unlikely to make such a silly technical error they knew what they were doing and were doing it well. With today’s advanced communication technology and data bases at their disposal, these companies have the capabilities to design highly complicated samples and carry out even census. As for the design of the questionnaire , Crude oil it is not just simple question of “Are you in favor of “Remain”, or “Leave”, it is designed to check out among other things if the person would be going to vote or not. They also take more than one type of sampling techniques and compare the results .The cost of error is high and there are too much at stake!!!!

Unlike the yesteryears, when these pollsters were competing with each other on accuracy to capture the public news headlines, today they are hired and paid by the major banks, the financial institutions, the brokers, the speculators and the online brokers. These institutions not only need accurate predictions but also total confidentiality and non-public disclosure. The result of these polls is used to be ahead of the market in their multi-billion decisions. When the “official referendum result is announced , they have already taken "Long" or "Short" position and started to turn the prediction into cash. See the graph above it is very illustritive .

When the official result of the referendum was announced it was not "Too Close to Call " or 8% for “Remain” as the poll made the public to believe, it was a 4% ahead for the "Leave".All were taken by surprise except these professional traders, billions were made by going “Short” on sterling, oil, stocks… and “Long” on dollar, gold… while many poor traders without these information, lost billions and started asking

How did the polls get it so wrong? They did not get it wrong , they just sent you the wrong direction

Crude oil there were too many thumps on the scale during the public opinion polling . it is still not a conspiracy. It is a new Class of "financialist" tearing Capitalism a part . This new financialist have free access to the earning of all factors of production( Land, labour , and even the capitalists profits ) at zero rate of intreset to take the largest share of GNI , without any efforts and at zero risk . I like to call it the Financial Revolution “.

These marching migrant pictures were used by the “Leave Camp”.They were more than enough to scare every single Englishman to leave the breakfast table and march towards the polling stations and vote “Leave “, add to it the J M Statement “88 million Turks will gain the right to live and work in Britain”,the UK public were not given a glimpse of the next “punishment budget” or not listened to the chancellor. “I said we had to fix the roof so we were prepared for whatever the future held and thank goodness we did," said the Chancellor

Why Referendum

We know that all UK general elections for the last 70 years were held on Thursdays… it is a tradition or “may be” to give the outgoing PM (Prime Minister) the weekend to pack and booze out and allow the incoming PM to celebrate the Sunday in 10 Downing St and start his work on Monday!!! , but I cannot see any reason for a referendum to be held on Thursday and not Sunday.The last referendum on this issue was back in 1975 ." and was also on Thursday

"I Could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device ( Referendum) so alien to our traditions....which has too often been used by Nazism and fascists" Clement Attlee

"The late Lord Attlee was right when he said the referendum was advice of dictators and demagogues" said M.Thatcher.

Brexit Brexit

The timing and the date of the referendum is also questionable .10 weeks for ordinary citizens, to make up their mind on such highly complicated financial and technical questions that even the bank of England cannot answer , is just like giving a child a hand grenade

The 1975 referendum which was also held on Thursday, was simple decision of getting married to Europe or not, as the new Wilson minority government took office and wanted to show continuity.The 2016 referendum amounts to getting divorce after 41 years of living in single market and then throwing the baby out with the washing water. The old cartoons of the sixtie and 70s depict how hard it was for Britain to get in and how easy it was to leave…...

2- Britain was given a good deal in European February meeting and was allowed cherry picking. Then why did The PM asked for this unnecessary referendum.. In election you have a chance to change your mind but in referendum you have no second chance .

The conclusion is now obvious, .. if Referendum, is alien device used by Nazism and fascists" .Then why was it used .The dictors use it to get the desired results.It is like the Spanish inn , you get anything you take in. The cartoons depicts The British PM Harold Wilson, and The French President Charles De Guale

Jabbar al-Jaf:Oil Market Analyst